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Telecommunications and technology, in slow recovery in Latin America
In 2004 Latin America it left several years de economic crises, which remarkably benefits to the companies from services de telecommunications and its suppliers in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela. However, the businesses in terms de regional income will not recover at the levels previous to the crisis until 2006-08. The movable telephony, the broadband Internet and the enterprise market will impel the growth to medium term.
In all Latin America the traditional telephony de fixed line loses the leadership in the development de new businesses against the operations de movable services. The annual income de the fixed line for the region fell drastically in 2001-02 (de 42 thousands 600 mdd to 38 thousands mdd), because the financial problems de Argentina also dragged to some de their neighbors. According to the estadunidense consultant Pyramid Research, specialized in telecommunications, the income in the region will not recover at the 2001 level until 2006.
It is anticipated that the services de movable telephony show a more reliable growth medium term. Nevertheless, the sector already undergoes consolidation with the purchase by the Telephone Spanish de the operations de the estadunidense BellSouth in ten countries this year. The cellular service de that company, Telephone Moving bodies, will more and more dispute the regional supremacy with Mexican Movable America.
The operations de fixed line watch towards the services de broadband Internet to recover the lost margins. In fact, the rising adoption de the broadband services by the consumers will insufflate new life to the operations de television by cable in A. The annual income de the sector reached a maximum de about 5 thousands 500 mdd in 2000 and fell to 4 thousands 400 mdd in 2003. The industry recovers, but the income will not return to the highest levels before 2008.
Although in the regional scope the fortune de the companies de telecommunications will be far better, their perspective vary de market in market:
Mexico. The local market de telecommunications will continue having robust growth in the period de prognosis, mainly in the subsector de movable telephony. The anemic rate de growth de the economy in 2001-03 does not seem to have had significant impact in the sector, according to Pyramid, because the number de line users fixes and de moving bodies it had constant ascent. The growth in movable subscriptions will continue being strong; the penetration will arrive at 38% at the end de 2008. Also the penetration will grow in line fixes, that will reach a rate de 19% by the end de 2007. The adoption de technologies de broadband access, that at present is extremely low, will increase in the next years and will represent 5% de the total de lines towards 2007.
Brazil. The pasts five years have been present at a fast transformation de the Brazilian sector de telecommunications. By means de a combination de privatization and liberalization de the market, the private investment is fluid, the capacity de the networks has expanded and new companies have entered the market. It holds to the appropriate regulation, the limitless competition is allowed now in all the segments de the market. The open entrance must provide an ample range de opportunities for local and foreign companies, inclusively suppliers de equipment and financial maintenance companies. The entrance will be also fortified by the launching de services de pre-payment for the home and the expansion de the services enterprise subscribers. The penetration de the moving bodies will continue increasing, mainly by means de the addition de prepaid subscriptions. Like in the rest de Latin America, the launching de networks de telecommunications de third generation is not anticipated at least (3G) until 2005-06. In the services de fixed line, the growth de the market will be smaller in the period de prognosis.
Argentina. In 2005-06 Argentina he will be one de the markets de telecommunications de more fast growth in A. After a sharp reduction in 2002, the recovery de the demand de these services was fortified in 2004 and the announcements de strong investments de the operators suggest the growth will be maintained in the next years. Nevertheless, the strong interest by Internet will stimulate the growth de the broadband technologies.
Chile. The country will continue being more the market de telecommunications advanced de A. The expansion de the line network fixes will be restricted by the increasing competition de the companies de television by cable and the sector de movable telephony. Nevertheless, Telephone CTC Chile, the dominant company in fixed telephony, expressed lightening when finding out that Chilectra has filed its plan to equip its network de electrical distribution in Santiago with technology de communications de line de energy. It would have incorporated to average dozen from new players to the broadband market like suppliers on watch, among them the three main chains de departmental stores de the country.
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